Sullivan Seeks Post-Biden Stability During China Visit

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s recent visit to Beijing aims to prevent China from taking advantage of the United States’ potential vulnerability amid two wars in Europe and the Middle East and a November presidential election at home, according to experts.
“And my visit here during this period helps contribute to try and sustain that responsible management over this coming sensitive period,” he said.
China expert Shi Shan told The Epoch Times, “Sullivan delivered his ‘don’t’ message to Beijing in person.”
Days after Hamas attacked Israel last October, President Joe Biden said “don’t” repeatedly to any countries or organizations that were “thinking of taking advantage of the situation.”
The United States and China have agreed to a call between Biden and Xi Jinping later this year. Sullivan has also hinted that in-person meetings may occur for the two leaders as both are likely to attend the 2024 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Peru and the G20 summit in Brazil. Both events are scheduled for November.
More significant are lower-level direct communication channels as tensions rise in the South and East China Seas, Shi said. Such channels can provide timely de-escalation and prevent a spark from turning into fire.
Sullivan called the commander-to-commander call “a very positive outcome.”
The meetings involved discussions on regional stability and risks of further escalation on several fronts. Sullivan told reporters during his visit that China’s ongoing support for Russia’s defense industry would impact European and transatlantic security.
As China monitors the United States’ global strength, it may see the wind blowing in a direction that is to its advantage, according to Shi. He identified three prerequisites for the CCP to start any military conflict in the South China Sea or over Taiwan.
Another of China’s prerequisites is its own capability, which China has steadily grown with increased military spending. Shi said a third condition is unrest in the United States.
“Especially during this election year, American society is highly polarized. Whoever gets in next year, the political division is severe enough to impact U.S. policies and military maneuvers,” Shi said, highlighting the importance of the time window between now and next spring.
At the press conference on Aug. 29, Sullivan said he told Beijing that interfering in U.S. elections is “unacceptable” for any nation, and he covered the topic each time he met with Chinese officials.
Chen said the U.S. government had “taken a big step in communicating” with the CCP. However, Chen noted Beijing hasn’t seen any reason to change its behavior. Based on Chen’s reading, the CCP believes it’s a victim whose economic goals are suppressed through export controls and tariffs, and whose military ambitions are curbed by a U.S.-led alliance in the Indo-Pacific.
Chen said military communication alleviates tensions but doesn’t mean cooperation. He said the fundamental differences in what the CCP and the United States want are the drivers for bilateral tensions, which are unlikely to disappear soon.
Ding told The Epoch Times: “[Biden] likely wishes to leave office ’safely,’ without involving America in any new conflicts. Therefore, I believe he sent Sullivan to China, hoping that China would not create any new incidents.”
Ding said the effectiveness of the new military-to-military channel remains to be seen because, without Xi’s authorization, the CCP’s military leaders wouldn’t be responsive to their U.S. counterparts. “They don’t know how to respond. Therefore, they remain silent,” Ding said.
However, he believes that, given Sullivan’s visit, the CCP is “unlikely to make any ambushing moves” before the next U.S. president is sworn in.